Why 2026 Is Aviation's Most Volatile Year Since COVID

Why 2026 Is Aviation's Most Volatile Year Since COVID

Author: Skift July 23, 2026 Duration: 1:01:40
The airline industry is navigating its most unpredictable period since the pandemic, with fuel prices, geopolitical tensions, premium travel demand, and aircraft shortages reshaping the competitive landscape. Gordon Smith and Jay Shabat break down the data behind the headlines, explaining why airlines remain profitable despite rising costs and unprecedented volatility. They also explore the winners and losers across global aviation, from the Middle East's disrupted hub networks and Europe's consolidation wave to the changing competitive dynamics in the U.S. Plus, they preview what to watch as airlines report Q2 earnings and why premium cabins continue to drive the industry's strongest financial results. Follow the Hosts:  Gordon Smith – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Jay Shabat – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Meghna Maharishi - ⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠ Connect with Airline Weekly LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/airline-weekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/Airline_Weekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/airlineweekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/skiftnews/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ WhatsApp: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaAL375LikgIXmNPYQ0L/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@SkiftNews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and never miss an update from the airline and travel industries. 00:00 Welcome to Skift Playbooks 02:35 Why Oil Sets the Tone 06:28 Airline Profits in Context 10:39 Gulf Disruption and Recovery 12:00 Demand Trends and Rerouting 17:03 Premium Boom Everywhere 19:31 Supply Crunch and Delays 25:37 Unit Costs Beyond Fuel 26:57 Skift Aviation Forum Plug 30:00 Back to Europe Volatility 30:57 Europe Consolidation Outlook 31:36 TAP Sale and EasyJet Bids 33:43 Why IAG Outperforms 34:09 Tourism Boom and Loyalty 37:27 US Market After Spirit 40:29 Premium Gap Delta vs Spirit 44:07 US Consolidation and American Chase 48:05 Q2 Earnings Season Themes 53:04 Global Airlines Scoreboard 57:22 Wrap Up and Subscribe

Step inside the Airline Weekly Lounge, a podcast from Skift where the editors behind the industry publication gather for a deeper, more conversational look at the world of commercial flight. This isn't just a recap of headlines; it's a focused exploration of the complex forces shaping how airlines operate, compete, and ultimately survive. Each episode digs into the week's most intriguing developments, from fleet strategies and route networks to labor dynamics and the evolving culture of travel, always with a keen eye on the bottom line. The central, driving question remains: how do carriers actually turn a profit in this famously volatile business? You'll hear analysis that connects financial results to real-world operations, discussing everything from premium cabin innovations and loyalty program economics to airport politics and environmental pressures. The tone is informed and accessible, peeling back the layers on both major global network carriers and regional players. For anyone curious about the business realities behind their boarding pass, this podcast offers a regular dose of context and clarity, revealing the intricate balance of economics, service, and strategy that keeps the industry aloft. Join the editors in the lounge for a perspective that goes beyond the news cycle.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 50

Airline Weekly Lounge
Podcast Episodes
Spirit Airlines: The Post-Mortem [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 38:35
Spirit Airlines is the first major U.S. carrier to go out of business in more than two decades. In this special edition, Gordon is joined by Jay and Meghna to unpack what went wrong — from blocked mergers to shifting con…
What's Going Wrong at JetBlue? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 33:03
Gordon and Jay open with JetBlue's latest quarterly results, unpacking what's behind the airline's struggles and what it might take to get back on course. Then they turn to Norwegian, where a strong set of numbers tells…
Will Washington Save Spirit Airlines? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 35:08
Could the U.S. Government shore up Spirit Airlines? Gordon and Jay break down the latest industry chatter about the troubled carrier's future, including fresh commentary from President Trump. Then they shift gears to unp…
Could United Really Merge with American Airlines? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 27:38
Will two of America's biggest airlines become one? Gordon and Jay dig into whether a United-American mega-merger is actually on the table and ask what further consolidation would mean for the industry. Plus: Qantas cuts…
Delta Confronts the Oil Price Crisis [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 41:43
Delta’s latest results are in and the fuel price challenge is front and center. Gordon, Jay, and Meghna dive into what the numbers say about the airline’s strategy and resilience. In part two, the conversation turns to S…
Who Will Lead IATA Next? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 40:56
Gordon and Jay unpack major leadership moves shaping the industry, from Willie Walsh’s shift to IndiGo to Michael Rousseau’s departure from Air Canada. Later, they dive into fuel prices and what’s ahead for Alaska Airlin…
An Aviation Crisis – with a Twist [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 28:46
In part one, Gordon and Jay unpack a whirlwind few days for the global airline industry, including fresh insights on jet fuel prices. In part two, the conversation turns to intriguing developments at Filipino low-cost ca…
Making Sense of the Fuel Price Crisis [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 41:14
Fuel accounts for roughly 20–30% of an airline’s operating costs—so when prices surge, the impact can be immediate and significant. In this week’s show, Gordon and Jay break down how U.S. airlines are navigating this his…
A Gulf Airline Crisis Like No Other [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 49:17
In a week when the world's busiest international airline ground to a halt and Gulf hubs faced aerial attack, Gordon and Jay explore the impact of the Iran war on the aviation industry. In part two, we take a closer look…