Why 2026 Is Aviation's Most Volatile Year Since COVID

Why 2026 Is Aviation's Most Volatile Year Since COVID

Author: Skift July 23, 2026 Duration: 1:01:40
The airline industry is navigating its most unpredictable period since the pandemic, with fuel prices, geopolitical tensions, premium travel demand, and aircraft shortages reshaping the competitive landscape. Gordon Smith and Jay Shabat break down the data behind the headlines, explaining why airlines remain profitable despite rising costs and unprecedented volatility. They also explore the winners and losers across global aviation, from the Middle East's disrupted hub networks and Europe's consolidation wave to the changing competitive dynamics in the U.S. Plus, they preview what to watch as airlines report Q2 earnings and why premium cabins continue to drive the industry's strongest financial results. Follow the Hosts:  Gordon Smith – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Jay Shabat – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Meghna Maharishi - ⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠ Connect with Airline Weekly LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/company/airline-weekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/Airline_Weekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/airlineweekly/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/skiftnews/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ WhatsApp: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaAL375LikgIXmNPYQ0L/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Subscribe to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@SkiftNews⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and never miss an update from the airline and travel industries. 00:00 Welcome to Skift Playbooks 02:35 Why Oil Sets the Tone 06:28 Airline Profits in Context 10:39 Gulf Disruption and Recovery 12:00 Demand Trends and Rerouting 17:03 Premium Boom Everywhere 19:31 Supply Crunch and Delays 25:37 Unit Costs Beyond Fuel 26:57 Skift Aviation Forum Plug 30:00 Back to Europe Volatility 30:57 Europe Consolidation Outlook 31:36 TAP Sale and EasyJet Bids 33:43 Why IAG Outperforms 34:09 Tourism Boom and Loyalty 37:27 US Market After Spirit 40:29 Premium Gap Delta vs Spirit 44:07 US Consolidation and American Chase 48:05 Q2 Earnings Season Themes 53:04 Global Airlines Scoreboard 57:22 Wrap Up and Subscribe

Step inside the Airline Weekly Lounge, a podcast from Skift where the editors behind the industry publication gather for a deeper, more conversational look at the world of commercial flight. This isn't just a recap of headlines; it's a focused exploration of the complex forces shaping how airlines operate, compete, and ultimately survive. Each episode digs into the week's most intriguing developments, from fleet strategies and route networks to labor dynamics and the evolving culture of travel, always with a keen eye on the bottom line. The central, driving question remains: how do carriers actually turn a profit in this famously volatile business? You'll hear analysis that connects financial results to real-world operations, discussing everything from premium cabin innovations and loyalty program economics to airport politics and environmental pressures. The tone is informed and accessible, peeling back the layers on both major global network carriers and regional players. For anyone curious about the business realities behind their boarding pass, this podcast offers a regular dose of context and clarity, revealing the intricate balance of economics, service, and strategy that keeps the industry aloft. Join the editors in the lounge for a perspective that goes beyond the news cycle.
Author: Language: English Episodes: 50

Airline Weekly Lounge
Podcast Episodes
Can a "New Class of BNPL" Become a Strategic Loyalty Play? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 17:50
ClarityPay recently partnered with JetBlue to introduce a new pay-later program that combines embedded financing, loyalty, and personalization to drive incremental revenue. Learn more about ClarityPay here: claritypay.co…
How Much is EasyJet Worth? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 43:10
An approach from U.S. private equity firm Castlelake has reopened the question of what EasyJet is actually worth. Gordon and Jay run through the latest takeover chatter before setting the scene for Delta's Q2 earnings. F…
Does SAS Really Need 40 A330neos? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 37:48
Does SAS Really Need 40 A330neos? In part one, Gordon and Jay discuss SAS Scandinavian Airlines' new widebody order and ask whether the carrier can justify that many additional planes. In part two, the focus turns to Air…
Is Las Vegas Out of Luck? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 37:08
Las Vegas air traffic is down 6%. Gordon and Jay work through what's behind it, then turn to a U.S. market headed firmly the other way. Follow the Hosts: Gordon Smith – ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠…
What's the Most Profitable Airline in the World? [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 35:54
The latest Airline Weekly global earnings scoreboard is in and the airline on top may not be the one you'd expect. Jay joins Gordon and Meghna to sort the winners from the losers. Before that, we report back from the IAT…
The IATA AGM Debrief [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 40:47
Gordon joins Jay from Rio as the IATA AGM wraps. The two then turn to Brazil itself: one of the world's largest aviation markets, and one of its most consolidated — a combination that shapes everything from pricing to wh…
Inside the Minds of America's Airline CEOs [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 38:22
Gordon and Jay decode the most revealing CEO commentary from the Bernstein investor conference — what executives signaled about capacity, consolidation, and the months ahead. Then they look forward to the IATA AGM, one o…
 EasyJet's Tricky Quarter and Atlanta's Crown [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 45:24
A rough quarter for easyJet has the numbers telling a stark story. In part one, Gordon and Jay dig into a -27% operating margin and the missteps, market pressures, and industry dynamics behind it. In part two, they answe…
The Airline Europe Wrote Off — and Shouldn't Have [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 39:34
Gordon and Jay unpack how Iberia engineered one of the most dramatic financial turnarounds in modern airline history. Plus: Singapore Airlines posts a solid start to the year, but its Air India stake is shaping up to be…
The Profit Gap Splitting U.S. Airlines [not-audio_url] [/not-audio_url]

Duration: 27:00
Gordon sits down with Skift airlines reporter Meghna Maharishi to break down a revealing Q1 earnings season for U.S. carriers — separating the standouts from the strugglers. Plus: the latest merger chatter swirling aroun…