Derek Moore and Shane Skinner run the post Labor Day numbers, including what the S&P 500 has done the day after Labor Day, the rest of that week, the rest of September, and the rest of the year going back to 1945. Plus, a look at Jeff Weniger's chart showing growth stocks failing again at the 1980 to 2000 resistance line versus value, what the options market implies for Oracle around earnings, and where forward earnings estimates and multiples sit on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. All that and more this week.
S&P 500 performance the day after Labor Day going back to 1945.
The index fell 0.45% the day after Labor Day this year.
The day after Labor Day averaged -0.81% in the last 10 years and was positive only 10% of the time.
Since 1945 the day after averages -0.14% and is positive 49% of the time.
The rest of September after Labor Day averages -0.89% since 1945.
The rest of the year after Labor Day averages 3.23% and is positive 73% of the time.
Jeff Weniger's chart of S&P 500 Growth relative to S&P 500 Value back to 1980.
Growth versus value failed again at the five-decade resistance line it last touched in 2021.
What followed the 2021 touch when the market rotated hard into value in 2022.
Oracle options into earnings and what implied volatility said about the expected move.
Front week Oracle implied vols north of 120 with the stock near $162.52.
Oracle trading around 18.4 times forward earnings on estimates of $8.82 a share.
S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of $381.68 a share for a forward P/E near 20.2 times.
Next year's S&P 500 estimate of $450.43 implies another 18% earnings growth.
Nasdaq 100 forward earnings estimate of $1,288 a share at roughly 22.9 times.
Why index multiples look different once you line them up against expected earnings growth.
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
